Climate VCs are cautiously optimistic about a second Trump term — here’s why

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President-elect Donald Trump made no secret during his campaigning that he doesn’t think the U.S. should take an aggressive stance on climate change. From leading chants of “drill, baby, drill” to frequently criticizing everything from wind turbines to electric vehicles, he appears poised to cast a shadow over the climate tech sector for the next four years.

Or will he?

Like many of Trump’s positions, it’s hard to pinpoint his exact stance on climate change and technologies that serve to mitigate or adapt to it. What’s more, some of his proposed policies might stand to benefit climate tech broadly, even as they prop up oil and gas.

“If you deregulate and you ‘drill, baby, drill,’ you can get more natural gas and oil. You can also get heat like geothermal. You can potentially get geologic hydrogen,” Leonardo Banchik, investment director at Voyager Ventures, told TechCrunch.

Banchik and other climate tech investors are cautiously optimistic that policy changes being considered by the second Trump administration won’t be universally detrimental to climate tech.

“A lot of the climate tech wave started during the Trump administration,” Banchik said. “Regardless of which administration is in power, these technologies are going to continue coming down the cost curve.”

Sophie Bakalar, a partner at Collab Fund, agreed, and added she wouldn’t be surprised if this second Trump administration also inspired more entrepreneurs to start building in the sector. “Climate does not operate on a four-year cycle, these are very long-term trends and problems,” she added.

Much of investors’ optimism stems from lessons learned from the clean tech cycle that went bust over a decade ago. Then, many companies grew too quickly, building massive factories and supply chains before demand had fully materialized. They also grew overly dependent on government subsidies, whether through grants, loan guarantees, or otherwise.

“We are not investing in companies that are relying on federal subsidies or really bold ESG mandates from corporates. We are only investing in companies that provide a concrete value to their customer that is independent from climate,” said Bakalar.

Joshua Posamentier, managing partner at Congruent Ventures, echoed that sentiment. “We don’t invest in anything that we think will require subsidies forever in order to have any unit economics.”

Not all clear skies

Still, some companies … Read More