Ceasefire With Hezbollah Shifts Israel’s Focus to Iran

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By Cyril Widdershoven – Nov 29, 2024, 12:00 PM CST

A US-France-brokered 60-day ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel could stabilize Lebanon but also facilitates Israeli preparations for potential action against Iran. OPEC+ deliberations, linked to struggling demand and political pressures, intersect with geopolitical shifts, particularly involving Iran, Russia, and an incoming Trump administration.

Trump’s potential reinstatement of sanctions on Iran and opposition to Russian energy exports could reshape global markets, benefiting Gulf producers and Israel’s strategic goals.

The unexpected 60-day agreement to halt the ongoing military confrontation between Hezbollah and Israel could have significant consequences for the region, Israeli and Arab sources indicate. The US-France-brokered ceasefire between Lebanon’s extremist militia Hezbollah, supported by Iran and Russia, and Israel could bring some stability to Lebanon and the region, experts suggest. The 60-day ceasefire, if upheld by the warring parties, should lead not only to the removal of Hezbollah from the Lebanese-Israeli border region but also to the revamp of the Lebanese Army, in close cooperation with the US and France. Some even expect Arab countries, especially the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt, to become involved. Overall, the ceasefire is seen as a big step toward a return to normalcy in the region.

The current optimism, however, could be blindsided by other moves from regional powers. Israeli news sources have indicated that one reason for the Netanyahu government to support the ceasefire is so that Israeli armed forces can return home in the coming weeks and be revamped and upgraded for future operations elsewhere. Israeli military analysts have reported that the Israeli war cabinet will soon discuss a possible move against Iran. For most Israelis, the confrontation between Israel and Iran is far from resolved. Leaving Lebanon, especially after destroying a significant part of Hezbollah’s infrastructure and missile capabilities, would enable Israel’s defense forces (IDF and IAF) to prepare for new actions against Iran. After recent Israeli attacks on Iran, the latter’s airspace is reportedly vulnerable, providing opportunities to address existing military threats and nuclear projects. One Israeli source claimed the US-France-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah implicitly included the option of Israeli military action against Iran, with the condition that Israel warns the US beforehand.

These Israeli discussions, rooted in reality, could also intersect with OPEC+ deliberations involving Russia, Saudi Arabia, and others. The rescheduling of the OPEC+ meeting from … Read More