How ‘Wicked’ Could Shock Everyone and Win Best Picture

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When The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King dominated the 2004 Academy Awards , winning all 11 of its categories including best picture, it made history. Yes, it was the biggest Oscars sweep ever. But it also was probably the first best picture winner with its own toy line.

Until then, well-regarded blockbusters like Star Wars and Raiders of the Lost Ark weren’t able to win the big one. And it hasn’t happened since LOTR, despite worthy efforts from Black Panther, both Avatars and Barbie (the only best picture nominee actually based on a toy line).

But this year’s best picture winner could finally herald the resurgence of commercial-juggernaut cinema.

No, not Dune: Part Two, though it could earn a picture nomination. In terms of going all the way, it’s Wicked of which I speak, that Jon M. Chu movie musica l about misunderstood witches and talking animals. Though, granted, its toy rollout has not been without its hiccups, as the Mattel toys contained a….highly unfortunate packaging misprint. (Whatever you do, don’t google “Wicked.com” around children.)

Why the fixation on toys? Because it speaks to a number of prejudices that Academy members are assumed to have against a movie like Wicked: It’s too childish. Too frivolous. Too commercial. Too plastic.

Perhaps that’s why the movie may struggle to earn a spot in the Oscars discussion. In a recent survey of awards insiders by The Los Angeles Times, Wicked ranked 18th overall in its best picture chances — three-quarters of those surveyed didn’t cite Wicked at all — though that was taken before the movie became a phenomenon. The Hollywood Reporter’s own Wizard of Odds, Scott Feinberg, ranked it a far more optimistic 6th out of his top 10.

A week into its release, however, Wicked is starting to shape up as a serious contender. Now, Elphaba isn’t flying off to the Western sky with statuette in hand quite yet. But there’s no denying that Wicked has a lot going for it in its bid to win best picture.

Let’s start with the obvious. Academy members don’t just like Wicked — they love Wicked. At the Directors Guild, PGA and SAG screenings in both Los Angeles and New York, as well as at the Academy screening, capacity crowds … Read More